Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise. Before reading further, please be sure you’ve read the discussion about the Delphi process on this Module’s Homepage. It includes information that is not repeated here.
Topic:
For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood. Examples include
The likelihood that X will be elected (to some office) in 20##.
The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.
The percentage of feature films that will consist entirely of computer-generated imagery by the year 20##.
The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about, and also know something about (although you need not be experts).
Participants:
You will be the coordinator. Select three other persons as participants. Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can count on. These can be either family members, close friends, or other students (although not students enrolled in this course. They’ll be busy coordinating their own Delphi exercises.)
The Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting their assistance.
The first-round responses from the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).
As closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailed example, which is cited in the Home Page discussion. You may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it. (This special dispensation is intended to help move things along.)
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