Question: A Friend Has Participated For The First Time In A Screening Program Designed To Detect A Disease. They Have Been Informed Already That Their Screening Test Was Positive And They Are Concerned About What This Means. You Put Your Epi Skills To The Task And Start Researching The Test And Disease A Bit Further. You Learn The Screening Test Used In The Province …
a friend has participated for the first time in a screeningprogram designed to detect a disease. They have been informedalready that their screening test was positive and they areconcerned about what this means. You put your epi skills to thetask and start researching the test and disease a bit further. Youlearn the screening test used in the province has a reportedsensitivity of 91% for the disease and this sensitivity is stableacross different age groups that can be screened.
a) Does this information alone help you advise your friend onthe likelihood that they actually have the disease in question?Explain why or why not (1-2 sentences max).
b) You begin reading more about the disease the test isscreening for. You learn the prevalence of this disease varies byage in the population as does the volume of positive tests eachyear. You are able to compile a table that summarizes thisbelow:
|
Age: < 30 |
30-49 |
50-64 |
65-74 |
75+ |
|
|
Population |
Not screened |
600,000 |
740,000 |
800,000 |
725,000 |
|
# Positive Tests (2019) |
78,000 |
74,000 |
67,000 |
65,500 |
|
|
Prevalence of disease |
1% |
3% |
6% |
9% |
Your friend is 34 years of age. Using the above information,make some calculations to give your friend a sense of theprobability that they have disease. (1-2 sentences + show yourwork)
c) Your friend is concerned as her aunt, who had a similarpositive screening test last year at age 68, was later diagnosedwith the disease. What is the main factor that might make heraunt’s situation different than her own? How different are thechances that these two women have disease based on positive testresults? (1-2 sentences)
d) You are advised from a work colleague that they heard thesensitivity of the test in question is actually lower than 91% inwomen 30-49. They inform you a published report released yesterdaysuggested that this test has a sensitivity of only 84% in this age,while 91% remains correct for other ages. Does this informationchange what you would tell your friend in part b) ? (1-2sentences)
e) Your friend has heard of a concept of a negative predictivevalue for a screening test and asks if this concept is relevant toher understanding if she might be a false-positive screen. Is thisconcept helpful? Why or why not? (1-2 sentences
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